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Estimates of Gross Domestic Product
5 April 2010: The Central Statistical Organisation, the Union Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (October-December) Q3 of 2009-10, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP.
The details of the estimates are presented below. Estimates Of GDP By Economic Activity (a) At constant (2004-05) prices Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q3 of 2009-10 is estimated at Rs. 11,58,764 crore, as against Rs. 10,93,167 crore in Q3 of 2008-09, showing a growth rate of 6.0 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q3 of 2009-10 over Q3 of 2008-09 are, ‘mining & quarrying’ at 9.6 per cent, ‘manufacturing’ at 14.3 per cent, ‘construction’ at 8.7 percent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 10.0 per cent, and ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 7.8 per cent. The growth rate in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ and ‘community, social and personal services’ is estimated at (-) 2.8 per cent and (-) 2.2 per cent, respectively in this period. The fall in the growth of ‘‘community, social and personal services’ is mainly on account of high base in Q3 of 2008-09, following the implementation of Sixth Central Pay Commission’s recommendations.
According to the second advance estimates of production of crops released on 12.2.2010 by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q3 of 2009-10, the crops rice, coarse cereals and pulses during the Kharif season of 2009-10 have declined by 14.2 per cent, 20.3 per cent, and 10.0 per cent, respectively over the corresponding season in the previous agriculture year. Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds and sugarcane declined by 9.1 per cent and 11.8 per cent, respectively during the Kharif season of 2009-10, while the production of cotton increased marginally by 0.2 per cent during the agriculture year 2009-10. However, horticultural crops and livestock products are expected to grow at 4.8 per cent and 3.1 per cent, respectively.
According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production, the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of 9.6 per cent, 14.3 per cent and 4.0 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2009-10, as compared to the growth rates of 2.0 per cent, 0.5 per cent and 2.9 per cent in these sectors in Q3 of 2008-09. In the mining sector, production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 4.0 per cent and (-)0.9 per cent in Q3 of 2009-10, as against the growth rates of 10.5 per cent and zero per cent in Q3 of 2008-09. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and finished steel registered growth rates of 8.5 per cent and 7.7 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2009-10, as against the growth rates of 8.8 per cent and (-)6.0 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2008-09.
Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 12.5 per cent and 6.7 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2009-10, as against the growth rates of 0.5 per cent and 10.1 per cent, in the corresponding period of previous year. In the transport and communication sectors, the production of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation, passengers handled by the civil aviation and the total stock of telephone connections (including WLL and cellular) registered growth rates of 195 per cent, 10.6 per cent, 19.6 per cent, 22.2 per cent and 46.1 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2009-10 over Q3 of 2008-09. The key indicators of banking, namely,aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 18 per cent and 12.2 per cent, respectively during April-December, 2009-10 over the corresponding period in 2008-09. The revenue expenditure of central government excluding interest payments during Q3 of 2009-10 has declined by 0.6 per cent over the corresponding period in 2008-09.
(b) At current prices GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q3 of 2009-10, is estimated at Rs. 15,54,310 crore, as against Rs. 13,88,512 crore in Q3, 2008-09, showing an increase of 11.9 per cent.
The wholesale price index, in respect of the groups, food articles, non-food articles, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 16.9 per cent, 4.1 per cent, 30.7 per cent, (-) 2.3 per cent, 3.7 per cent, 2.0 per cent, and 4.7 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2009-10, over Q3 of 2008-09. The consumer price index for industrial workers has shown a rise of 13.3 per cent during Q3 of 2009-10 over Q3 of 2008-09.
II Estimates Of Expenditures On GDP The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices. Private Final Consumption Expenditure
Private Final Consumption Expenditure at current prices is estimated at Rs. 9,77,993 crore in Q3 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 8,80,013 crore in Q3 of 2008-09. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 7,37,013 crore in Q3 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 7,12,521 crore in Q3 of 2008-09. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2009-10 are estimated at 59.8 per cent and 60.0 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 60.3 per cent and 61.5 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2008-09.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure Government Final Consumption Expenditure at current prices is estimated at Rs. 2,03,948 crore in Q3 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 2,05,194 crore in Q3 of 2008-09. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 1,42,205 crore in Q3 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 1,58,446 crore in Q3 of 2008-09. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2009-10 are estimated at 12.5 per cent and 11.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 14.1 per cent and 13.7 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2008-09.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Gross Fixed Capital Formation at current prices is estimated at Rs. 5,18,330 crore in Q3 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 4,61,587 crore in Q3 of 2008-09. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 4,00,706 crore in Q3 of 2009-10 as against Rs. 3,68,009 crore in Q3 of 2008-09. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2009-10 are estimated at 31.7 per cent and 32.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 31.6 per cent and 31.7 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2008-09.
Source: Press Release (mospi.nic.in)