The Indian economy is assessed to have expanded 5 per cent during the fiscal 2013, the slowest pace over the decade, according to provisional estimates of national income released by Central Statistics Office (CSO). Worse, this was the second consecutive year of a retard Indian economy has witnessed, from 6.2 per cent in the preceding fiscal and a healthy 9.3 per cent in the fiscal 2011. The steep slide in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate jolted analysts, as the feat has raised misgivings about the resilience of the economy that had made a quicker and sharper recovery from 6.7 per cent in the global meltdown scarred 2009 with 8.6 per cent in the following year and 9.3 per cent in 2011. Prior to 2009, the economy had chugged at 9+ per cent for three consecutive years.

The retard in growth was largely confined to manufacturing, which stagnated during the year, against 2.7 per cent in the fiscal 2012, 9.7 per cent two years back, and 11+ per cent in the fiscal 2011. Farm income also slowed to 1.9 per cent from 3.6 per cent and construction from 5.6 per cent to 4.3 per cent. In fact, reflecting widespread malaise, all major sectors recorded a decline in the growth rate, barring government administration-splashed community, social & personal services that grew little faster at 6.6 per cent. Gross fixed assets investment inched up 1.7 per cent, against 4.4 per cent in the preceding fiscal and 12+ per cent in the fiscal 2011.

Nevertheless, the Indian economy appears to have bottomed out sometime in the third quarter of the fiscal 2013, even as the pace of recovery subsequently is pale and halting. Thus, the GDP growth rate of 4.8 per cent in the last quarter of the fiscal has marginally improved upon 4.7 per cent in the third quarter. Construction income expanded at 4.4 per cent, halting the decline in the rate from 7 per cent in the first quarter to around 3 per cent average in the next two quarters. Manufacturing also marginally bettered the 2.5 per cent rise of the third quarter. The ratio of gross fixed assets investment to gross domestic product at market prices (GDPmp) has improved to 32.6 per cent from 32 per cent in Q3, even as on Y-o-Y basis, it showed a decline.

The GDPmp, broadly the size of the domestic market, has crossed Rs 100 trillion to reach Rs 100.21 trillion, or around US$1.8 trillion during 2012-13.

Manufacturing Sector Developments

Infrastructure Sector Developments

Power Sector Developments

FDI Developments

Quote of the week:

"The economy appears to have bottomed out sometime in the third quarter of the fiscal 2013, even as the pace of recovery subsequently is pale and halting."